Growth is slowing but by how much has not been determined.  Many forecasters are revising their projections downward, well under 2% for the first quarter.  This may give the Fed further reason for pause as they meet this week to get a new reading on their tarot cards.  The recent data has been inconclusive and unclear.  The surprise down tick in December and the surprising uptick in January for retail sales have got economists scratching their heads.  Combining this with the anemic jobs report and slowing inflation only adds to the uncertainty.  Have trade tensions finally begun to take their toll?  Did the December market sell-off cause the consumer to retrench? Or was the government shutdown a bigger deal than we thought?

Don’t worry.  The jobs number for February was weak, but it followed several very strong reports.  New home sales have rebounded and are trending upward and one less than stellar jobs report may be little more than noise in the bigger picture.  Even retail sales had a positive surprise last week.   But there does seem to be some clouds on the horizon.  I had previously stated that the FRB would raise rates twice this year.  But the yield curve is telling a different story as spreads in the curve have been shrinking.  Even the inflation adjusted spread for the 10-year note has fallen to 1.9% from over 2%.  If the economy is indeed slowing, then when will growth rebound? Keep your eyes on the Fed. The Fed may indeed cause the next recession, but they may also keep us from one.

The information and descriptions provided about the Program are for educational and information purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, a recommendation for any security, or suggest any course of action. LaSalle St. Investment Advisers (“LSIA”) does not guarantee that the information or descriptions supplied about the Program are complete or timely. LSIA makes no warranty with regard to any results obtained from the Program or its deployment. LSIA is not responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by relying on information provided about the Program. The allocations presented herein are illustrations and completely hypothetical. None reflect actual investments or investment results and do not reflect allocation of any individual portfolio. Asset allocation and its results vary over time. Other allocations or asset investment categories not offered in the Program may have characteristics similar or superior to those illustrated. Past performance of any model or allocation is no prediction of future results. Neither the Program nor any system/model can predict the future of any market or price movement in a market. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee against the risk of investment loss, including risk of loss of principal. Information provided regarding the Program is as of the date of publication and may change at any time without notice. Information has been included which was obtained from third parties and is believed to be reliable and complete. LSIA does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information. LSIA is a registered investment advisor and does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice ‒ the information and/or descriptions provided do not constitute such advice. More information regarding LSIA and its investment strategies can be found in the LSIA brochure, ADV Part II, which is available online or through LSIA. Asset allocation may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest, potential participants should consult with an investment adviser to determine an appropriate investment strategy and methodology which meets the investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizons and risk tolerance. The information and description provided herein has been made without consideration of any investor’s particular suitability for investing in the Program. Asset allocation also involves investment in various asset classes which are not insured by the government. Investing in fixed income and/or high yield securities involves additional concerns including interest rate risk, credit risk and reinvestment rate risk. Investing in securities outside the United States may entail greater risk than investing in domestic U. S. markets. These risks typically include political and economic uncertainty of foreign countries as well as currency exchange fluctuations, including foreign currency exchange rates, political risks, different methods of accounting, financial reporting and foreign taxes. The prospectus accompanying a security should carefully be reviewed before investing. The services described herein are available to persons residing in any state where they would otherwise be contrary to local law or regulation.

Copyright © 2019 LaSalle St. Investment Advisors, LLC., All rights reserved.