The wiser you become, the lesser you will be surprised.

- Mehment Murat Ildan

With the new quarter’s rebalance behind us, we’ll now turn our attention toward monitoring the new portfolios.  The new quarter’s allocation saw more turnover than has been experienced in recent quarters, as the volatility of last quarter precipitated the changes.  Each quarter, the solutions brought to us via Sortino Investment Analytics (SIA) are the output of the analyses performed on thousands of data points, subjected to hundreds of computations and based on the work of names you should be familiar with by now.

A lot of economic data made news last week.  The biggest surprise came with the number of jobs created in January (304,000).  The government shutdown was an insignificant footnote in the report, as the increase in the participation rate kept the rate from falling.  Tight labor markets have historically suggested rising wages leading to rising inflation.  But not this time, as the Phillips Curve seems to have a kink in it.  Higher productivity offsets higher wages and keeps inflation in check.  Unit labor costs rising by only 0.9% is the validation.  With the recent rally it seems markets have put the 4th quarter to bed, but it doesn’t signal all clear.   Trade and earnings are front and center as 4th quarter reporting so far has been mediocre.  The Fed has become less of a headwind as the tone of Mr. Powell’s comments suggested a kinder, more market friendly Fed.  But extrapolating any of the current data beyond a quarter or two would be foolish.  Surprises and shocks are a part of all markets and they may be closer than you think.

As you consider the information provided with the Salt Creek Investors Asset Allocation Platform (the “Program”), please review the following:

The information and descriptions provided about the Program are for educational and information purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, a recommendation for any security, or suggest any course of action. LaSalle St. Investment Advisers (“LSIA”) does not guarantee that the information or descriptions supplied about the Program are complete or timely. LSIA makes no warranty with regard to any results obtained from the Program or its deployment. LSIA is not responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by relying on information provided about the Program. The allocations presented herein are illustrations and completely hypothetical. None reflect actual investments or investment results and do not reflect allocation of any individual portfolio. Asset allocation and its results vary over time. Other allocations or asset investment categories not offered in the Program may have characteristics similar or superior to those illustrated. Past performance of any model or allocation is no prediction of future results. Neither the Program nor any system/model can predict the future of any market or price movement in a market. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee against the risk of investment loss, including risk of loss of principal. Information provided regarding the Program is as of the date of publication and may change at any time without notice. Information has been included which was obtained from third parties and is believed to be reliable and complete. LSIA does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information. LSIA is a registered investment advisor and does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice ‒ the information and/or descriptions provided do not constitute such advice. More information regarding LSIA and its investment strategies can be found in the LSIA brochure, ADV Part II, which is available online or through LSIA. Asset allocation may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest, potential participants should consult with an investment adviser to determine an appropriate investment strategy and methodology which meets the investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizons and risk tolerance. The information and description provided herein has been made without consideration of any investor’s particular suitability for investing in the Program. Asset allocation also involves investment in various asset classes which are not insured by the government. Investing in fixed income and/or high yield securities involves additional concerns including interest rate risk, credit risk and reinvestment rate risk. Investing in securities outside the United States may entail greater risk than investing in domestic U. S. markets. These risks typically include political and economic uncertainty of foreign countries as well as currency exchange fluctuations, including foreign currency exchange rates, political risks, different methods of accounting, financial reporting and foreign taxes. The prospectus accompanying a security should carefully be reviewed before investing. The services described herein are available to persons residing in any state where they would otherwise be contrary to local law or regulation.

 

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