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Political uncertainty, global threats, and natural catastrophes have become a part of the daily routine. Yet markets remain near all-time highs…What gives?
How do investors continue to buy a market that appears by many measures to be overvalued?
Monetary policy is likely the clue. Bonds are still very expensive and investors are mostly indiscriminate about their buying. But for how long? From month-to-month, the Fed continues to receive mixed signals about the economy. Their message remains the same, and at some point in the future normalization of interest rates and the balance sheet will occur. Still, the date on the calendar keeps getting erased. While investors continue to buy momentum, value investing takes a back seat.
Knowing when market sentiment has changed is often a rear-view mirror look. Making sure you’re buying quality (firms with strong balance sheets) is good practice.
Predicting the “when” and “how” of monetary policy is a fool’s game. Worrying about the leverage in a portfolio when monetary policy changes, however, is not.
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